In Newfoundland politics there are cycles. A party can be on top of the world 1 election and then the election they lose (See NL Liberals in and 1966 and 1971/1972, the PC's in 1985 and 1989 and the Liberals in 1999 and 2003). There are even some whispers out there that following the resignation of Danny Williams last year as premier that the PC party is losing its edge. I think that may have merit but the party is still in solid shape with 37 of the province's 48 seats and a recent election win where the party got 56.1 percent of all votes and gained a seat that had been Liberal for 26 years. The whispers are also intesifying about the Liberals coming back as we see Dean Mcdonald who many consider to be their Danny Williams is now speaking up about politics moreso and the fact that the Liberals maintained official opposition, getting 6 seats, in an election when many, myself included, predicted they'd only get 2 or 3 seats. So there may be light at the end of the Liberal tunnel but before we proclaim that the Liberals are on the way back, let's look at where it all went wrong for a party that once was the standard bearer for politics in this province:
1) The 1999 Election: This was the last election I sat on the sidelines for, I didn't become involved until early 2003 but I watched this election night with great interest. That election was supposed to be a creaming, a lot of people said the most seats the PC's would get would be 4 with the Liberals getting the other 44. Election night saw the PC's get 4 seats alright, 4 more seats than what they had when the Liberals dissolved the house. They gained Harbour Main, Lewisporte, Placentia St.Mary's and Windsor Sprindgale, electing 4 people who would go onto be cornerstones for the party's return to government in 2003 with the election of 2 future cabinet ministers (Tom Hedderson, Tom Rideout), a person who probably would have been a cabinet minister had he not gone federal (Fabian Manning) and a solid backbencher (Ray Hunter). The party also came close in 3 other seats (Losing Gander, St.John's Centre and St.John's North all by less than 350 votes). Had they gained those 3 seats the Liberals would have been left with 29 seats and the PC's would have had 17, not bad for a party that was only supposed to win 4 seats. You could feel the air being let out of the Liberals tires then but no one said much about it at the time.
2) The resignation of Brian Tobin: Brian Tobin: That name still has to stir up a lot of emotion in this province. Tobin, of course, is perhaps one of the top federal politicians in the province's history, known for his stance in the turbot wars in 1995, he was always seen as a future federal Liberal leader, when former Liberal premier Clyde Wells announced his resignation in late-1995 Tobin stepped in and announced he would run. People got caught up in Tobin mania throughout the winter of 1996, people thought that he was the saviour and the person who would lead this province into the new millenium. Still people always knew Tobin had an ulterior motive to being premier, that he wanted more. He always denied that he was looking elsewhere but when he called a snap election in the winter of 1999 you knew something was up. He did commit to serving a full term but in October 2000 he announced he was resigning as premier and going to run federal. Tobin mania was over provincially and people realized that politically Tobin was an opportunist and took out some of their blame on the rest of the party. (Blogger's Note: Thoughts are with Mister Tobin and his family as they are going through legal trouble with their son, you have to feel for them totally and you wish them nothing but the best and that their son gets the help he needs).
3) Danny Williams: Ed Byrne resigned as PC leader in the summer of 2000, many people where sensing that the time was now for the PC party to make a move if it where to ever become the government again in the province. I think getting Danny Williams to become the leader was pretty big, the type of home run that the party needed, all of a sudden the party was relevant again. I think that there was miminal interest within the PC caucus to run for the leadership at that time but when Danny Williams announced he was running, people backed off and rightly so as Danny Williams was the type of politician that only came around once in a lifetime. Almost right away the fortunes for the PC party turned and the Liberals started to go more downward.
4) The election wins of Trevor Taylor and Wally Young: You have heard the story about how you could run a sheep in certain parts of this province, have them represent a certain party and the sheep would win, well the Straits White Bay North was like that for the Liberals. They had held it since confederation at the time of the 2001 by-election and figured to win it again. Taylor though was an agressive campaigner, he had ran for the NDP in the federal election 2 months before and was seen by many as a rising star in Newfoundland politics, anyway he won the election and became one of the main parts of our party in the last few years we where in opposition. The district of St.Barbe was one that had been PC in the past, but had been Liberal for 16 years before the 2001 by-election, the PC candidate, Wally Young Jr., ended up winning the seat in the by-election. Both men are now gone from politics as Taylor resigned in 2009 and Young was defeated in the recent provincial election but both provided the party and the province and their districts with effective representation, there was even a time Trevor Taylor was discussed as a future PC party leader and premier in this province.
5) Roger Grimes becomes Liberal premier: When Brian Tobin resigned as Liberal premier in 2000, the discussion became who would replace him: I remember there being 5 candidates who where rumoured as being interested: The 3 who would run (Roger Grimes, John Efford and Paul Dicks) and 2 who backed out (Lloyd Matthews and Chuck Furey). Roger Grimes, from the outset of the leadership, seemed to be the favourite to win, he had held numerous high-profile cabinet posts (Health, Mines and Energy, Tourism, Employment and Education), he was the youngest of the 3 who did run and had support from most of the caucus. Problem was Efford had the support of most of the grassroots of the party. Paul Dicks was not seen as much of a threat to win the leadership and was out on the 1st ballot. Depending on who you speak to about that leadership you'll get many different answers as to what happened. All I know is there was something fishy that happened at that leadership and the words: "Roger Grimes 638, John Efford 624" still has to haunt the Liberals to this day. Grimes turned out to be a dud as premier and Efford went from being a man of the people type of politician to a bitter old man who can't let what happened 10 years ago go. It fractured the Liberal party in a way that it hasn't been able to recover from and what happened there is the reason why I'm glad there was no leadership convention for the PC party when Danny Williams resigned.
6) Ross Wiseman crosses the floor: The whole spring and summer of 2001 was an exciting time in politics in this province, you had rumours of floor crossing from the Liberals to the PC's and resignations, I remember John Efford was 1 name that was constantly mentioned, I don't know of any other names but there was a lot of rumblings out there but on the afternoon of September 7th 2001 an announcement came out that Ross Wiseman was crossing the floor to sit as a PC. Wiseman was seen as a rising star within the Liberal party and was sure to be included in the next cabinet shuffle, his crossing the floor was a huge blow to the Liberal party as Ross Wiseman has been a steady and effective cabinet minister for our party since 2003 and is now speaker of the house.
7) Harry Harding winning Bonavista North: Bonavista North: You hear that district, you think about the Liberals, and yes the Liberals had a good history in Bonavista North. They held it for much of the Moores and Peckford governments, when Beaton Tulk resigned in the spring of 2002 to go federal many people assumed that the new Liberal candidate would keep the seat in Liberal hands, no way would the Liberals lose Bonavista North. Sure Harry Harding, the PC candidate, was well known and well liked but that was a Liberal seat if there ever was one. No way would the Liberals lose there. Harry Harding proved to be to strong for the Liberals in the July 2002 by-election in which Beaton Tulk ran in an effort to replace himself. This election I think was the final nail in the Liberal coffin.
8) Time was up: Maybe this is true, as I said before the politics of this province has been really up and down, it has been Liberal for 23 years, then PC for 17 years, Liberal for 14 years and PC for the past 8, people in this province want a change in their governments after a while and I think this could have happened here, still to fall as fast as the Liberals have over the past 8-10 years is amazing.
So there you have it 8 factors which have contributed to the Liberals' downfall, a downfall from which they are still picking up the pieces.
The author thanks everyone for reading, he can be reached at tducey1@gmail.com
